Monday, April 18, 2016

Market Updates 18 April 2016. Index, Oil, Gold

US market
Last week US market remain bullish, cumulative weekly return for Dow jones is up 1.82%, Nasdaq up 1.8%, S&P 500 up 1.62%. For US index, we still dont see price turning around yet, hence we are still holding on to stocks.Oil future show weakness as of today we are in the 4 consecutive down day. This is usually a bearish sign when we see 4 consecutive down days out of 5 trading day, it show that people are selling. Oil fall to the low of 37.61 this morning but have rebounded during Asia and Europe trading hour.
Fed Meeting
In March 17 Fed meeting did not increase the interest rate, and Fed announce that the rate hike will be 2 time this year instead of 4 time. The next Fed meeting is on 26-27 April, most likely there will not be a rate high this month but we will hear Fed talking about the likelihood of rate hike in June. Though most investor think that Fed will not increase interest rate now, but the Unemployment rate is at 5% now and non farm payroll and CPI result is good, base on the data, economy in recovering. Fed have the reason to talk more about the plan to rate hike in the upcoming meeting on 27 April. 
3月17日美联储会议最终不加息并对未来加息次数预期降为2次. The Fed’s next meeting is April 26-27. 4月联储会议将讨论未来6月加息的可能性,目前市场一致认为美联储加息概率较低,不过目前美国失业率维持在5%及以下水平,非农就业的数据也持续表现强劲,核心CPI持续维持在2%以上,国际市场较为稳定 投资者需要提防4月27日会议发布偏鹰派言论。

Singapore market current at a overbought position, most stock already up and on a high side. This means the risk of a correction in May is likely. I will put 2800 as a point to tell if STI turn around, if it break below 2800 then that is a point to close more position, otherwise will continue holding.

Ezra report big losses last friday, i think oil companies will still report bad result this quarter as last quarter the oil price was at the low, be cautious on this.
this week focus on quarterly corporate earnings result with blue chips such as Keppel Corp, Singapore Exchange (SGX) and Hutchison Port Holdings Trust issuing their financial reports this week.

Malaysia Market - Bank is strong with as malaysia ringgit recover, most other stock did not have a big move since march, except for Airasia, export sector still weak but is forming a support level, possible a rebound at current level. If you see bank start falling and export sector start recovering, then its time for entry.

Gold is currently the biggest winner, since January Gold price up more than 15%
What about Gold miners?
You probably win more with the Gold miners as they have fallen to pretty low level in the past few years. Some of them like DRDgold(Market cap 192Million) has just gone up more than 300% recently and Barrick gold(Market cap 18Billion) gone up more than 100% since January.

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