Saturday, February 26, 2011

STI outlook

First of all, thank you those who have attended our monthly client seminars on Thursday, hope that you have benefited from our 3hr sessions and bring back some knowledge of trading. We will be having a more exciting topic next month, do keep a look out on our emails or sms. =)

STI jumped 52 points on Friday! Many will ask if this is a dead cat bounce or a real rebound. Well, I have to say that it is hard to tell with just 1 day of rebound but whether real or not realwhat is important for us to know is to buy or not to buy?

From the STI index chart, we analyse and found the following points(disclaimer, just for your info) :

  • - If you are have seen STI on 15 years chart you will see that the 200ma is very significant line to determine the long term trend, now we are still below 200ma (200 days moving average)
  • - If we buy when STI cross above 200ma, we have 80% chance that the index will rally for at least the next 3month(base on STI chart 10year).
  • - Currently the 200ma is sitting at 3052
  • - From the lowest point, we might see consolidation for 1 week before the bear turn into bull
  • - The last year correction STI went 127pt below 200ma, we went 90pt below this time.

Our advise is to slowly accumulate if you are aggressive investor, maybe you can load 30% of your money into stocks now. *** Make a stoploss if you are wrong, do not lose more than 5% of your capital each time. If you are conservative investor wait to see STI go above 3052.

Long term: STI ETF, Kep Corp, Starhub, M1

Mid-term: Sunvic, Hi-P

Short Term: UIC, Thinkenv, Ramba

Lastly, stay away from those stocks that have drop tremendously (52weeks low), Wilmar, yanlord, tigerair, SIA…… a lot more. Do not buy these stocks..

Keep in mind: What goes up, will come down. What goes down, may not come up!!

Have a great weekend!

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Hi-P, ChipEngS


Hi-P 1.18, posting this stocks again as it is always performing well in despite market sentiment is bad. Can consider to add position if tomorrow hit 1.19-1.20 area. Mid-long term trade. Stoploss, can place at 1.10







ChipEngS closed 0.445 today with unusual high volume. This is a uptrend stocks that is now at support level (50ma) Can consider to get it around this level, Stoploss 0.425.





Monday, February 21, 2011

Ramba

STI close 3070 (-16) today, overall market is still weak, it might go down to test 3030-3000 this week, hopefully it go down soon so that investors who are waiting at this point will all jump in and buy. However we still believe market will go higher once correction is over thus be ready to invest again!

Ramba 0.485, recently had a spike in volume and price. I believe that this is the signal to the end of its down trend. It had a small retracement last week and now seems to regain strength again. Can consider to buy around 0.485 stoploss at 0.44, mid-long term trade.



Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Market Sentiment

STI +14 close at 3094, resistant will be at 3120 and if break above this level we will see more upside. However if it fail to stay above 3120 then the rebound is not sustainable and traders must remain cautious! First support will be at 3060, follow by the 3000.

Why we said any good buying opportunity would be when the STI reaches around 3000 & 2980? First if ST break below 3060(the 200ma) there will probably be a heavy sell down to the next support level which is likely to be 3000 & 2980. Second US market has been very bullish since Dec last year without significant pullback, if it does pullback it will definitely affect regional market, thus STI breaking below 3060 may be possible. If market sentiments continue to be bad, short the property counters!

Good stocks to look at if market turns around: Kep Corp, SGX, CoscoCorp, SembCorp, Sembmar, NOL, Noble Grp... if you want diversification, can look at STI etf

Friday, February 11, 2011

STI broke crucial support!


STI down 47, to 3103 today! The 3120 did not hold as well as i expected. As this crucial support has been broken, we might see further downside in the next 2-5days. The next support can be found at 3050 and follow by 3000. Many asked why the market drop, well there are many reason here and there (china rate hike, US market 8days winning streak may end with correction or maybe a lousy budget announcement). Well.. i believe many shortist had entered short position when STI crosses 3120 which escalate the plunge across the board(My view la). So next is to find, where will they cover shorts?

The pic beside is the list of stocks that have been performing well for past few month, long term still uptrend, but mid term trend is bearish. If continue to drop, the long term trend will change its trend. Hence get out if it drop 1bid below prior day low. (those stocks the has been bearish for some time might not be shown here.)
If you not sure, do half.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Wilmar- Swing Short 2

Wilmar close $5.48 with a bearish star candlestick, the previous post on wilmar had a successful swing short! It is now in a oversold position(CCI -100) and hitting 20ma resistance. Can consider swing short with CFD if it show further weakness. Entry: $5.45,
target: 5.26, Exit 5.53(break above prior day high), Timeframe: 3-5days.

Reason of picking this stock (my 2 cents view):
1)downtrend for long time, i think this is one of the weakest stock in SGX, especially among the big cap.
2) Stock announce news yesterday, i suppose it is good news, but stock price is reluctant to run.
3) Stock give up gains during trading hours. Forming the bearish candle!

Monday, February 7, 2011

Uob-KH follow up, ManhattanRes

UOB-KH 1.85, after breaking out from the cup and handle pattern, it falls and now tested the support. The support seems to hold at $1.81, can consider entry around $1.85, stop loss can place at 1.79. Timeframe: 2weeks-2month







ManhattanRes $1.30, the chart is forming a cup and handle pattern, the pattern will only be complete if the price breaks above 1.36. Can consider early entry tomorrow if it breaks above prior day high. Stoploss at 1.18, Mid-long term trade.

NOL

NOL closed 2.29. After making new high, it came back to test support, never break below recent low. The trend of this stock remain uptrend despite of the recent correction. Now it is still at the support level, good entry for tomorrow will be 2.31, stoploss 2.13, timeframe: mid-long term. We will see more upside if it breaks above 2.40.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Bearish stocks u should not be holding


These are stocks that have fallen into the bearish zone. We should not be holding in our portfolio, and also should restrict ourself from buying these stocks. Stay far far away! look for stocks that is resilient from falling, those stocks have more potential to go higher. (e.g coscocorp, noble grp, kep corp, sembmar, hi-p, supergroup...etc). Email me if u are not sure what is good and what is not.

After the sell down in late January, many retail investor might want to look for some bargains. Some may have already been holding onto these stocks and now wish to average down.

Personally, I don't practice the "average down" method, and i always tell readers to average up instead(e.g osim). Why? It is because, when we buy the stocks and it goes up. It means we are correct in predicting the direction of the stocks, hence we should add position when we are right. This is also mean that we are risking the profit, but not more of our capital.
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